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    FIRST PRINCIPLES PLANNING

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    Testing Planning Assumptions

    Validating Before Committing

    Surface hidden assumptions in your plans and test them before committing resources. A plan built on faulty assumptions will fail elegantly.

    "Before you commit resources, ask: What assumptions would have to be true for this plan to succeed? Then test them."
    — First Principles Planning

    Every plan rests on assumptions - beliefs about the market, customers, competitors, technology, and your own capabilities. Most of these assumptions are implicit, never examined or tested. And many of them are wrong.

    A plan built on faulty assumptions will fail elegantly. All the milestones will be hit. All the budgets will be on track. And then reality will intervene, revealing that a key assumption was incorrect.

    In this topic, you will learn to surface the hidden assumptions in your plans. You will develop techniques for testing assumptions before committing resources. You will understand which assumptions are most critical and most uncertain - and therefore most important to validate.

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    1

    Every plan rests on assumptions, most of them implicit

    2

    A plan built on faulty assumptions will fail elegantly

    3

    Test critical assumptions before committing major resources

    4

    The most dangerous assumptions are the ones you do not realize you are making

    5

    Assumption testing is not pessimism - it is prudence

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